Weather & Disruptions
September 2025 was rough across several pepper origins. In Vietnam, Typhoon Bualoi came ashore on September 29 with heavy rain, flooding, and strong winds. Central provinces saw power cuts, airport closures, and damage to homes and infrastructure. The storm pushed inland before weakening toward Laos.
Indonesia also had a tough month. Bali saw its worst flooding in over a decade in the second week of September, and later updates flagged floods and wind damage in Sumatra and Java, affecting housing and local roads.
How That Touches the Pepper Supply Chain
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Vietnam: Most pepper grows inland in the Central Highlands, but the “middle belt” handles the critical links—roads, power, consolidation, and port/airport access. When that corridor floods or loses power, trucks, drying schedules, and export flow get tangled even if farms stay dry.
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Indonesia: Black and white pepper exports rely on road and port networks across Sumatra and Java. Late-September disaster reports point to localized community and road disruptions—exactly the stuff that slows agricultural movements.
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Market cross-currents: India’s Cochin benchmark stayed firm in late September (MG-1 and Ungarbled). Earlier commentary noted Brazil acting as a balancing origin for ASTA 570, with tariffs and route economics steering some buyers toward Brazil vs. Asia depending on destination.
Price Check (Sept 29, 2025)
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Vietnam: 500 g/l at $6,600/MT; 550 g/l at $6,800/MT (IPC daily refs).
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Indonesia: Black near $6,984/MT; white around $9,897/MT.
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Brazil: ASTA 570 about $6,500/MT.
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Malaysia: Black ~$9,600/MT; white ~$13,000/MT.
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India (Cochin): MG-1 around ₹694/kg; Ungarbled near ₹674/kg on the day.
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Vietnam domestic trade: early–mid Sept around 150,000–152,000 VND/kg; on Sept 29 local press cited 148,000–150,000 VND/kg.
Sector roundups in the week before the 29th tied floods to a quieter tone—stable spot indications, softer volumes while transport normalized (details in some cases were behind paywalls).
Quality & Post-Harvest Watch-outs
Heavy rain during post-harvest is a classic headache: higher moisture, slower drying, and more pressure from moulds (including aflatoxin/ochratoxin risks) if drying or storage gets interrupted. On the logistics side, expect rolling trucking delays, container yard backlogs, late paperwork when systems go down, and occasional re-drying or cleaning at warehouses.
Quick Timeline
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Sept 9–19: Major flooding in Bali (fatalities and serious damage to roads/bridges/buildings).
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Sept 19–26: Severe weather and flooding reports from parts of Sumatra and Java.
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Sept 24–29: IPC daily references kept Vietnam in the $6.6–6.8k/MT range; Cochin MG-1 near ₹694/kg on the 29th.
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Sept 29: Typhoon Bualoi landfall in Vietnam with evacuations, airport closures, and power outages.
Heads-Up for October
If you’re moving pepper out of Vietnam or Indonesia, add a modest buffer to October schedules and keep an eye on IPC daily prices and official transport updates.