As we enter the final stretch of 2025, U.S. bulk spice buyers face a decisive two-month window. From black pepper shortages to ongoing tariff pressures and year-end inventory recalibrations, this period isn’t about reflecting on the year’s trends, it’s about navigating what’s next.
This update focuses strictly on what matters for November and December: availability, pricing pressure, geopolitical impacts, and forward positioning. For broader context, refer back to our January 2025 forecast: 2025 Spice Industry Outlook.
Black Pepper: Limited Relief Before New Crop Arrivals
Global black pepper availability remains tight. Vietnam’s reduced output and delayed shipments following September flooding have kept FOB quotes elevated. As of late October, offers are hovering around $6,300–$6,800/MT for 500g/l FAQ, with Indian MG1 pricing significantly higher.
U.S. importers continue absorbing a 20% import tariff on Vietnamese-origin pepper, with limited low-duty alternatives. Brazilian crop inflow has helped slightly, but the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazil-origin pepper erodes competitiveness.
Short-Term Outlook:
- Prices are likely to remain firm through December.
- Spot availability is limited; suppliers are rationing export-grade lots.
- Some upside risk remains if Indian winter rain patterns worsen.
Recommendation: If you have not already secured year-end pepper coverage, consider limited-volume contracts to hedge exposure through January.
Garlic: Market Watches for Tariff Escalation
Dehydrated garlic prices remain elevated, driven by continued demand and uncertainty around potential tariff increases. Chinese origin remains the dominant source, despite the existing 35% tariff on dehydrated product. There is no confirmed implementation of the threatened 100% duty, but the policy risk is influencing supplier behavior.
Indian and Egyptian garlic are available in limited volumes, but neither is positioned to offset a sudden disruption in Chinese supply.
Short-Term Outlook:
- Prices are stable but sensitive to any escalation in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
- U.S. importers are accelerating forward buys to avoid potential January shocks.
Recommendation: Secure Q1 2026 coverage before December if your program is China-dependent. Delays past mid-November could expose shipments to policy change.
Onion: Rebalancing After Oversupply
Onion powder and granules are entering Q4 with a stable outlook. India’s large 2025 harvests have created reliable downstream supply of dehydrated product. Prices have stabilized since Q2’s glut-driven lows but remain favorable to buyers.
No new tariffs or compliance barriers are expected for Indian-origin onion into the U.S., and quality from Egyptian producers has been consistent.
Short-Term Outlook:
- Pricing will hold steady through December.
- Some seasonal firming could occur in late December ahead of India’s Q1 crop.
Recommendation: Proceed with normal replenishment. If warehouse space permits, topping up into early Q1 may be a cost-efficient move.
Chilies: Steady Demand and Quality-Driven Firmness
Chili prices have held firm due to steady export demand and limited high-quality arrivals. Indian Teja and S17 varieties are trading actively, though moisture-affected lots from late monsoon rains have entered some markets.
Chili processors are selectively rejecting off-spec lots, which may restrict volume availability of consistent, low-toxin product.
Short-Term Outlook:
- Market to remain tight through December.
- First indicators for the 2026 crop to emerge mid-January.
Recommendation: Ensure sufficient buffer of tested lots for Q1 programs. Quality screening (aflatoxin, moisture) should be prioritized when sourcing.
Closing Notes
For bulk spice buyers, Q4 2025 is not the time to wait for downward corrections. Between active trade risks, seasonally thin inventories, and climate-driven sourcing complexity, the most stable strategy is defensive positioning through January 2026.
We’ll continue to monitor developments closely and provide updates as needed. For technical specifications, shipment timelines, or origin-specific questions, contact your Majestic Spice representative directly.