In recent years, China has emerged as a key player in the global cumin market. Long dominated by India, cumin exports are now being reshaped by shifting supply patterns, changing weather cycles, and new trade dynamics. China, which once played a minor role, has grown into the world’s second-largest cumin exporter, an unexpected but important development for buyers who rely on stable supply and consistent pricing.
From Minor Producer to Global Supplier
Ten years ago, China was barely visible on cumin export maps. Today, it ships over 18,000 metric tons annually, valued at more than $100 million. That puts China just behind India in terms of export volume, well ahead of traditional producers like Syria, Turkey, or Afghanistan.
Much of China’s cumin comes from the Xinjiang region, where conditions allow for intercropping with other crops like cotton. In high-output years, Chinese traders can move sizable volumes quickly, especially to nearby countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and the UAE. India itself has even imported cumin from China during periods of domestic shortage.
Why China’s Role Expanded
Several factors contributed to China’s cumin rise:
- Supply gaps in India: Between 2021 and 2023, India’s cumin production dropped sharply due to erratic weather and reduced acreage. Prices spiked, exports dipped, and buyers looked elsewhere.
- China filled the gap: With competitive pricing and decent quality, Chinese cumin started showing up in markets that usually bought only Indian origin. In 2022, China even exported cumin to India itself.
- Regional demand: Countries close to China – Pakistan, Bangladesh, the UAE – have increasingly sourced cumin from Chinese suppliers, especially when Indian prices are volatile.
By 2023, China’s cumin exports reached a peak, with India, Bangladesh, and the UAE as the top three buyers.
2024–2025: The Situation Reverses
In 2024, India’s cumin production rebounded. Favorable weather led to a bumper crop, and India flooded the market with over 210,000 tonnes of cumin exports – up nearly 40% from the previous year. This brought prices down across the board.
At the same time, China’s own cumin harvest dropped by about 40%. The result? China switched roles again, becoming a net importer of cumin. Indian exports to China surged, especially in early 2024, as Chinese buyers stocked up to cover the domestic shortfall.By mid-2025, the market has cooled. Global supply is high, prices are lower, and demand is steady but not growing. China’s upcoming harvest is expected to be slightly below normal, which may keep its export capacity limited in the short term.
What This Means for Buyers
Expect continued price pressure. With India still exporting aggressively and Chinese demand soft, cumin prices are not likely to rise sharply unless weather issues return. Watch Chinese production. If China’s harvest improves later this year, it could re-enter the market as a stronger exporter – especially if Indian prices inch up again.
Diversification remains key. The last three years have shown how quickly supply dynamics can shift. Having multiple sourcing options (India, China, and others) can protect against sudden shortages or cost spikes.
Quality still matters. While China can supply volume, quality consistency and residue control may vary. For food manufacturers and retailers, knowing the exact origin and treatment of your cumin is still critical.
Final Thoughts
China’s cumin surge isn’t a one-time event—it’s part of a broader trend where newer producers are stepping in when traditional ones falter. For bulk buyers, this creates both flexibility and complexity. The market is more fluid now, but it also requires more attention. If you’re sourcing cumin regularly, now is a good time to review your supplier mix, check in on inventory positions, and consider contract terms for the second half of the year.
If you need any help comparing origins or planning ahead for 2025, Let us know- we’re tracking the numbers closely.