From California orchards to global trading desks, almonds are experiencing a supply‐chain squeeze. High inventories aren’t just numbers in a report — they have real effects on pricing, shipments, farmer incomes, and global trade dynamics. In this article, we unpack what’s going on, why it’s happening, and what stakeholders (producers, exporters, and consumers) need to watch.
What the Latest Data Shows
- Domestic shipments of U.S. almonds dropped dramatically: in August 2025, they fell to just 48.45 million pounds, a multi‐year low. Meanwhile, export volumes rose slightly — about 3% compared to the same period last year — bringing total shipments to ~157.8 million pounds, down 6% year-on-year.
- Inventories (“carry-in”, “carryover”, or edible & non-edible stockpiles from previous seasons) are sizable. The carry-in is estimated at 483.8 million pounds total, with about 447 million pounds of this being edible almond stock. These figures represent a modest drop from last year’s ~502.7 million pounds.
- Production is also lagging: crop receipts in August 2025 dropped more than 10% compared to August 2024 (259 million vs. ~290 million pounds), largely due to weather delays.
Why Inventories Have Become Problematic
Inventories themselves are not always bad — you need enough stock to meet demand between harvests, manage exports, and absorb shocks. But when they become too large relative to demand, or are poorly mixed (too old, not meeting quality), they create friction. Here are the key drivers:
- Weak Domestic Demand
Domestic shipments are collapsing to multi-year lows. Even though global appetite remains, U.S. consumers and processors aren’t pulling through at expected levels. This imbalance means almonds are sitting longer in storage. - Export Dynamics & Transitional Periods
Exports to some regions are picking up, but they’re not offsetting domestic weakness. Certain markets (like India during certain festivals) expected high demand, but low inventory in U.S. sources during transition periods has hurt shipments. Buyers are cautious, sometimes purchasing “just enough” (“hand-to-mouth”), waiting for newer crop availability, which slows stock turnover. - Production & Weather Delays
Rain, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures have delayed harvests, reducing the rate of supplies to the market. Fewer new almonds arriving means older stock lingers, but with the risk of quality decline. - Quality & Losses
Loss & exempt rates (almonds lost due to damage, not meeting export or edible standards) are higher than average. For 2024/25, loss/exempt reached ~3.14%, versus the forecasted ~2%. That means more product is unusable or only usable for non-premium purposes. - Buyer Behavior and Pricing Pressure
When inventories are large, prices tend to soften. Buyers wait, hoping for price drops, or delay ordering the new crop, leading to lagging demand. Also, for exporters, varying tariffs, shifting market access (trade policy), or seasonal festival demand cause uneven demand spikes that are hard to predict.
Consequences: What’s at Stake
- For Farmers / Growers: Reduced revenue. Older almonds may degrade; lower prices for non-premium grades hit profitability. Carrying costs (storage, pest control, shrinkage) increase.
- For Exporters / Traders: Risk of unsold inventory; pressure to discount; logistical costs of warehousing; changing trade policy adds uncertainty.
- Market Sentiment: Prices may stay volatile. Buyers may hold off on purchases due to inventory overhang.
- Quality & Food Safety: Extended storage increases the risk of pests, mold, and compromised taste/aroma. Edible standards become harder to maintain, especially for export markets with stringent regulations.
What Can Be Done (Strategies & Outlook)
Understanding the problem is one thing; mitigating it is another. Here are practical strategies and what to expect as the almond season progresses.
|
Strategy |
What It Looks Like |
Potential Benefit |
|
Demand stimulation |
Marketing campaigns focused on almond nutrition (plant-based diets, healthy snacking), creating new uses (ingredients, value-added products) |
Increases domestic pull, reduces inventory backlog |
|
Diversification of export markets |
Targeting regions less affected by trade barriers or saturated markets; strategic festival/timing exports |
Spreads risk; can take advantage of seasonal demand pockets |
|
Better crop forecasting & inventory planning |
Use data analytics, improved forecasting of shipments, systematic rotation of stock |
Reduces over-ordering, improves freshness, and minimizes loss |
|
Quality control & grading improvements |
Discarding or re-purposing low-grade almonds early, and better storage infrastructure (temperature, humidity) |
Preserves value; avoids post-storage losses |
|
Aligning harvest & shipping schedules |
Avoiding bottlenecks in transition; ensuring infrastructure (logistics, shipping containers) is ready as the new crop comes in |
Smooth supply; avoids gluts or delays |
What to Watch for Next
If you’re tracking this from a business, investment, or consumer standpoint, here are the signals that may indicate a change in the inventory situation:
- Reports from the Almond Board of California regarding domestic shipments vs. receipts.
- Loss/exempt rates trending upward or downward — they’re a canary for quality degradation.
- Harvest progress updates and weather forecasts across the main almond-producing regions.
- Changes in trade policy or tariffs in key import markets.
- New product launches using almonds (especially innovation in food, beverage, and nutraceuticals).
Conclusion
The almond inventory issue is more than storage space – it’s about balancing supply, demand, quality, and timing. Inventories are strained now, in part because domestic demand has cooled, exports are uneven, and aging stockpiles build up during slow transition phases. The roadmap forward involves smarter planning, stimulating demand, maintaining quality, and navigating export challenges with care.
When growers, exporters, and markets act in synchrony – matching harvest, quality, and demand – inventory becomes a tool rather than a burden.
References
Almond Board of California. (2025, September). Almonds: Inventories are the problem. Mundus Agri. Retrieved from https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/almonds-inventories-problem.n35704.html
Almond Board of California. (2024, December 18). 2024 State of the Almond Industry: Well-Positioned for Growth. Almonds.com. Almonds